By choosing the original number of shut in wells as the threshold data to form a new number series and to find out the regularities of number of shut in wells successively.

• 这样就把对停产井数的预测转化为对“停产”这一灾变出现时刻的预测,从而做到提前预报,并能及时采取相应的补救措施,减少工作中的盲目性,掌握生产主动权,以指导油田的高效开发。