However, nearly all models have failed in forecasting SST changes inthe Easter Equatorial Pacific since 1992. It is a challenge not only to the models but also to theunderstanding of the mechanism of ENSO cycle.

• 然而，自从1992年以来，几乎所有的模式都失去了它以前的预报性能，预报的6个月赤道东太平洋海温与实况位相是反的。 这一失败不但是对备种模式的一个挑战，也是对人们已有的ENSO循环机制认识的一个挑战。