Measuring the turning-point and comparing economic running-status, we conclude that applying the multivariate Markov regime-switching model to business cycle researches in China is a success.

• 通过对经济周期转折点测定，并与我国经济运行状况对比，我们认为用多变量动态马尔科夫转移因子模型刻画经济周期的特征是有效的。