System risk factor comes from the developing of the medical technology, the illness spectrum shifting, the change of the social insurance policy, the hospitalizing preference.

• 然后，对医疗成本变化、医疗保险住院疾病谱、道德风险因素、心理风险因素、时间因素、社会医保结算政策的变动这些因素进行了分析，提出了如何预测这些风险因素对费用风险的影响。