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Application of the time series decomposable model for the annual runoff prediction in Wulasitai River 时间序列分解模型在乌拉斯台河年径流量预测中的应用研究
annual runoff prediction 年径流预测
To effectively utilize the important information of the section interdependence during the time series of annual run-off,threshold auto-regressive(TAR) model is suggested to predict annual runoff. 为有效利用年径流时间序列资料所隐含的时序分段相依性这一重要信息，提出了用门限自回归模型(TAR)来预测年径流，并研制了TAR建模的一整套简便通用的方案。
The grey self-memory model for annual runoff was established on grey system and self-memory theory. 摘要将灰色系统建模方法和自记忆建模结合起来，提出了年径流预测的灰色自记忆模型。
The square ratio method and basin precipitation method are commended for annual runoff calculation. 在年径流计算中，建议采用面积比法和流域雨量法。
Noise in the hydrological time series influences not only the hydrology chaos identification, but also the runoff prediction precision. 摘要水文要素时间序列中的噪声不仅影响水文混沌特性识别，更影响径流预测精度。
Last, it compared with the same annual runoff depth isoline map of First surface water resource evaluation. 年径流深等值线图的编制对于提高地表水资源评价成果精度，分析年径流深参数地区变化规律具有重要意义。
Then the change of annual runoff distribution in the headwaters of the Yangtze River is discussed. 结果表明：长江源径流年内分配特征在1960年前后与1988年前后径流年内分配较为相近，1970-1976年与1993年以后径流年内分配较为相近。
AMong the forest factors, the effects of increasing forest coverage was larger than the unit stock voluMe increased on fluvial annual runoff. 在森林因素中，森林面积增加对河川年径流量的影响程度大于单位集水区面积森林蓄积量增加的作用。
From stability tests for mean annual runoff at Lijin gauge station, a step trend was detected and the most significant change points were obtained. 至于1986年突变点的发现，目前还不完全清楚其原因，最可能的原因是气候变化和上游过度的用水。
An annual runoff forecasting method is presented based on unit root test, cointegration test and error correction model of the upper and lower reaches of the Second Songhua River. 摘要介绍了协整分析理论，结合第二松花江流域上下游的年径流量，阐述了单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型的理论与分析方法。
First, it collected data from runoff stations and confirmed the principle of isoline mapping.Then, it analyzed the distribution of annual runoff parameter in Hebei province. 首先搜集整理了选用径流站的资料，确定了统计参数及等值线图绘制原则，然后对河北省径流深参数地区分布进行了分析，最后与第一次水资源评价成果进行了比较。
The model is applied to forecast the annual runoff of QingTong Xia of Yellow River and compare with Artificial neural network and nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive model. 应用此模型对黄河青铜峡年平均流量进行预测,并与单独的人工神经网络模型和最近邻抽样回归模型预测结果进行比较分析。
In this paper, the wavelet multiple time scales analysis method was used to analyze annual runoff time series from 1882 to 2006 of Yichang Hydrological Station. 运用小波分析的多分辨率功能，对宜昌水文站1882-2006年年径流量时间序列资料进行了多时间尺度分析。
In this paper, the characteristics and tendency of annual runoff changes of Naolihe River are analyzed, which is regarded as a typical marshy river in Sanjiang plain. 在分析三江平原典型沼泽性河流挠力河径流演变特征及趋势的基础上,应用灰色关联分析和径向基函数网络等方法,探讨了引起径流量减少和发生突变的原因。
medium and long-term runoff prediction 中长期径流预报
Grey Prediction on Annual Runoff of Run-of-River Plant 径流式水电站年来水量的灰色预测
The results showed the forest fire in Daxinganling in1987 resulted in the increase of annual runoff obviously in the initial stage, the runoff of melting snow in May tended to reduce. 结果表明：大兴安岭特大森林火灾后，河川年径流量明显增加，5月份融雪径流量有减少趋势。
As a result, the runoff in future for Luanhe River Basin and Sanggan River Basin is 74 mm and 71 mm, respectively, which is approximately a quarter of mean annual runoff (284 mm) of the whole country. 未来滦河流域年径流深减少 2 7mm ;流量减少 14 .;72× 10 8m3;桑干河流域径流深增加 2 6mm;流量增加 12
With the impact of climate change and increasing the intensity of human activities, the hydrological regime has changed, including annual runoff distribution, which is relating with water resources management and ecological construction. 摘要在气候变化和人类活动的影响下，河川径流的年内分配特征也发生变化，直接影响人类开发利用和生态环境建设。